Blogs - Human Security Brief 2007

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Posted by: Ehsan Ahrari	5/29/2008 2:47 PM
The global counterterrorism (CT) community has been frequently accused of overstating the "threat potentials" in different regions of the world. For instance, the fact that Jamaae Islamiyya is on the defensive in Indonesia is not well-publicized at all. The insurgency in Thailand, according to some Thai officials, has been just that, an insurgency, not a terrorist movement at this point. The report below challenges the overall bloated threat perception among global CT experts. It states: "Fatalities from terrorism have declined by some 40 percent, while the loose-knit terror network associated with Osama bin Laden's al-Qaeda has suffered a dramatic collapse in popular support throughout the Muslim world. Human Security Brief 2007 http://www.hsrgroup.org/

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Re: Human Security Brief 2007	By Butch on 6/18/2008 1:46 PM
There is a natural time lag between a change in trends and the acknowledgement of that change by responsible organizations. Except in the news arena there are employment and reputational disincentives to being ahead of the curve. Thomas Kuhn described the process very well in his famous treatis on scientific revolutions.

Re: Human Security Brief 2007

By MBaggson on 7/1/2008 8:08 AM

There is certainly a tendency in the CT industry to overstate threats; however I disagree with the statement that JI's weaknesses have been under-reported as well as the Thai insurgency is overly misrepresented as terrorism as opposed to an insurgency. Of course, if you are looking for such reporting from the mainstream media, it isn't really going to happen. Media makes its money from reporting crises and disasters - rarely from success stories. The old cliche "if it bleeds it leads" still rings true. Although, you can refer to a Time magazine article from back in Aug 07 clearly titled "How Indonesia is Winning its War on Terror". And Time is about as mainstream as you can get. The Economist has also been reporting clearly on such trends. But for detailed reporting on such positive aspects (as well as potential obstacles and pitfalls) you have to go to places like the International Crisis Group, or the Jamestown Foundation, both of which regularly publish analytic pieces on these issues. I also recommend a recent paper from the Australian Strategic Policy Institute (which I've uploaded in the documents section) titled "The Evolving Terrorist Threat in SE Asia", co-authored by Peter Chalk - who is affiliated with APCSS.

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