Strategic thinkers are constantly in search of new fads or new themes to debate in the global balance of power.  That exercise keeps them stay connected the constantly changing dynamics of their profession.  However, one has to wonder at times how real or fictitious some of those debates really are.  In this realm, one latest fad is whether America is on the decline as the lone superpower and a global hegemon. 

What is fuelling this debate is not the fact that America is, indeed, waning.  What is preoccupying the proponents of America’s decline is the fact that a number of countries—most notably China and India—are making accelerated progress in catching up with the United States in the field of economic development, sustained growth, and industrialization.  Even though it is not as impressive as China and India, the European Union is also on the rise as an economic powerhouse.  The spectacular nature of those countries’ progress is fuelling the debate that they will not only catch up with the U.S., but some of them would also leave it behind.

In the political realm, the quagmire that the United States encountered in Iraq after invading and occupying it, and the constant uphill battle that it faces in Afghanistan since invading it in November 2001, has only underscored the limits of America’s military power.  So, it can be argued that the declinist debate may, in essence, be about limitations of America’s power and influence.

Couched in the “limitation framework,” the declinists may have a persuasive argument.  But still one has to ask whether this alleged decline is reversible, whether one has to look for the emergence of new global hegemons, or whether there needs to be a new alignment between or among many such actors.  If this alleged decline is reversible, then a relevant question is what measures the next administration in Washington should take in order to reverse it.  These questions require a lot of thinking on the part of the readers.  Toward that end, I am pasting the url of Robert Lieber’s essay, “Falling Upwards: Declinism, The Box Set”:

http://www.worldaffairsjournal.org/2008%20-%20Summer/full-Lieber.html